Lucid Motors just announced its highest-ever quarterly vehicle deliveries—4,078 units in Q3 2025—marking a 46–47% year-over-year growth. This surge was largely fueled by rising sales of its Gravity SUV and a wave of buyers rushing to beat the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September. Yet, beneath the celebration lies a complex mix of optimism and risk: the company still trails behind its lofty original targets, and with the subsidy gone for many buyers, Lucid must prove it can sustain demand on its own merits.
In this article, we explore the details of Lucid’s record, the role of the Gravity model, how the expiring tax incentives shaped demand, and what this all means for Lucid’s near-term future.
The Numbers: Record Deliveries & Growth
In Q3 2025, Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles, up from 2,781 a year prior—a significant jump. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of growth in deliveries for the startup.
However, the figure still fell short of Wall Street’s average estimates (which centered around 4,286). That gap suggests that while the momentum is real, expectations remain high.
Much of the demand appears tied to the Gravity SUV, Lucid’s newer offering, which is gaining traction in its luxury EV niche. Lucid has indicated that the model is beginning to contribute meaningfully to total delivery volume.
This uptick is also happening against a backdrop where many automakers are seeing end-of-quarter spikes as buyers rush to lock in incentives before they expire. Lucid is no exception.
Gravity’s Role & Lucid’s Product Strategy
Gravity Gaining Momentum
The Gravity SUV, a crucial pillar of Lucid’s product roadmap, is becoming more important in the mix. While Lucid’s earlier mainstay has been the Air sedan, Gravity represents the company’s push into the more popular luxury SUV segment. The shift is both strategic and necessary—SUVs attract higher volume and more consumer interest in many markets.
Although detailed numbers of Gravity vs. Air deliveries have not been fully disclosed, Lucid’s messaging suggests that Gravity sales are accelerating and becoming a meaningful contributor to overall volume.
Pricing, Features & Product Positioning
Lucid is positioning Gravity as a premium luxury offering, with pricing above the entry-level EVs. Their challenge is balancing exclusivity with enough scale to drive sustainable volume. The company also needs to engineer cost efficiency, maintain quality, and ensure that newer buyers find the Gravity compelling despite price sensitivity.
Lucid’s long-term aspiration includes releasing a more affordable, mid-size EV (sometimes dubbed the “Earth” in speculative reporting) that could broaden their addressable market. But that model is still likely several years away.
The Tax Credit Factor & Expiry Effects
How Incentives Fueled Q3
One of the strongest tailwinds for Lucid in Q3 was the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit at month’s end. Many buyers accelerated purchases to exploit this benefit before it vanished.
Importantly, Lucid’s cars typically exceed the price threshold for the credit on cash purchases. However, leasing structures allowed many buyers to remain eligible. That loophole softened the blow, but that advantage disappears with the credit’s termination.
Risks After Expiry
With the credit gone for many buyers, Lucid now faces several headwinds:
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Lowered demand: Buyers who were motivated primarily by incentives may delay or cancel purchases.
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Margin pressure: To keep demand alive, Lucid may need to offer more discounts, hurting profit margins.
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Sustainability test: The company must now prove its value proposition beyond subsidies.
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Forecasting uncertainty: Without the incentive tailwind, projections for Q4 and beyond become harder to calibrate.
Several EV makers are already anticipating a drop in sales in Q4 as the incentive disappears.
Lucid is attempting to mitigate this risk. One known move is an internal initiative to extend tax credit benefits via leasing for certain models (e.g. Gravity) delivered into Q4. This could temporarily preserve incentive-driven demand.
Challenges Behind the Headlines
Record deliveries sound positive, but Lucid still contends with structural obstacles:
Delivery vs. Demand Gap
Even with growth, Lucid is far from hitting original ambitions set at its SPAC listing. The gap between expectations and reality has been a challenge since their IPO.
Profitability & Cash Burn
Like many EV startups, Lucid is not yet consistently profitable. Deliveries alone don’t guarantee sustainable margins—cost structure, scale, supply chain efficiency, and post-sales support all matter. Some critics note the need for capital discipline and execution rigor.
Dependence on Leasing & Incentives
To boost eligibility, Lucid leaned on leasing strategies rather than full pricing transparency. As incentives fade, reliance on lease-based advantage could undermine future revenue if customers prefer ownership models.
Production & Supply Chain
Scaling gravity production, securing components, managing quality, and localizing manufacturing are all critical. Any hiccups in supply, logistics, or factory uptime could stifle momentum.
Market Competition
Lucid competes not only with Tesla, but with legacy automakers and Chinese EV makers entering premium and mid-luxury spaces. As pricing pressure intensifies, differentiation in brand, tech, performance, or customer experience becomes crucial.
Outlook & Opportunities Ahead
Despite risks, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic:
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Brand & luxury positioning: Lucid appeals to a niche that values premium design, performance, and exclusivity. They may retain appeal even without incentives.
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Geographic diversification: The company has invested in Saudi Arabia and sees the Middle East as a key strategic market. Local production, volume, and demand in those regions can open revenue corridors.
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Partnerships & strategic deals: Lucid has locked demand from Uber for its Gravity SUV robotaxi plans—a move that could provide a stable baseline of orders.
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Cost optimization & scale improvements: As scale grows, Lucid may improve margins via economies of scale, vertical integration, and leaner operations.
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Future models & mass market entry: Success of the mid-size, lower-cost EV will be pivotal in transforming Lucid from niche luxury to broader mainstream presence.
